Football Betting in New Zealand: The Full Picture for 2026

Updated October 2026

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Data current as of October 30, 2026, checked against the Department of Internal Affairs register and TAB NZ’s published terms.

Football is the sport Kiwis watch in the largest numbers from abroad, and it is the sport an offshore bookmaker’s homepage is most likely to lead with. In New Zealand, the answer to “where can I bet on football?” is shorter than in almost any other market an English-speaking punter reads about. TAB NZ, through its two online brands TAB and Betcha, is the only operator lawfully offering such bets in New Zealand. That single fact reframes everything else on this page: the odds formats, the spread of markets, the welcome bonus a reader has heard about and the appeal of switching bookmakers for a better line. Each of those comparisons exists, but only one of them can be reached lawfully.

This page walks through the football-betting landscape as a New Zealand punter actually meets it: the regulated monopoly and its tools, the offer mechanics in plain English, the markets football bettors use most, the live and in-play side, the bankroll and staking decisions a reader is on their own with, and the comparison of what a punt looks like across TAB, Betcha and the offshore brands a Google search will surface. It is not a tip sheet — nobody knows which team wins Tuesday — and it is not a sales page. It is the shape of the market, written for someone deciding what to do with their money.

The Football Betting Landscape in Aotearoa

Why one operator holds the floor

Section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020, in force since 28 June 2025, states that no person other than TAB NZ may offer racing betting, sports betting or other racing or sports betting to a person in New Zealand. The Department of Internal Affairs told providers serving New Zealand to withdraw with immediate effect. The amendment does not target one company: it names a sector. There is no application route for another bookmaker, and there is no licence register to apply to, because there is only one lawful provider.

TAB New Zealand runs the operation under a 25-year partnership with Entain signed in 2023. Entain keeps the platform running and shares gross profits 50/50 with TAB NZ, with at least $150 million a year flowing to TAB NZ for the first five years and a one-off $100 million payment pledged by Entain to the racing sector. The two online brands punters meet, TAB and Betcha, belong to that one operator group — they are not rivals, and there is no point comparing them as if they were.

The pitch a search engine hands a New Zealand punter

A search for “football betting sites NZ” returns offshore brands because New Zealand does not geo-block offshore websites. The page exists behind a domain; the law puts liability on the operator offshore, not the punter in the lounge, and the ban covers bets taken from a person in New Zealand regardless of where the operator is incorporated. Some of those offshore brands hold licences in Curaçao, Anjouan, Tobique or the Comoros. None of those licences gives a right to take bets from a person in New Zealand, and the New Zealand harm-minimisation framework — deposit limits, self-exclusion, the Gambling Helpline, the complaints route — does not reach them.

What follows for the punter is that the regulated choice is small and the unregulated choice is wide. This page examines both.

What the page covers

The next sections walk through how odds and margins work, what markets football actually offers, how live betting and cash-out function, what bonuses really cost the bettor who clears them, and how the comparison between TAB, Betcha and the wider offshore market plays out. Responsible-gambling tools, the statutory framework and a frequently-asked block close the page.

How Odds Are Built, and What They Cost the Punter

Decimal odds and the margin baked into every price

All football prices on TAB and Betcha are quoted in decimal form: a $10 stake at odds of 2.10 returns $21 if the bet wins, for a profit of $11. The stake comes back as part of the return, never as a separate line. Where a reader has seen fractional odds — 5/1, 11/10 — those are an older English convention; the decimal form is the one New Zealand books publish, and the conversion rule is decimal = 1 + (numerator ÷ denominator).

The price a punter sees carries a built-in cost called the margin. A match-result market with three outcomes, home win / draw / away win, has the bookmaker’s edge baked into the three prices. Take an illustrative market at decimal odds of 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60: the implied probabilities add to roughly 1.10, leaving a margin of around 10% across the market. Around 6% is typical for a top-flight football match where information is plentiful and the bookmaker competes hard; a 10% margin is the shape a less efficient market takes, where the bookmaker has more room. The arithmetic behind this is laid out in the section on working out the margin.

What the margin feels like over a season

A punter placing $100 in single bets at a 6% margin loses about $6 to the bookmaker on average before form and variance do anything. The same punter at 10% loses about $10 before form and variance do anything. Over a season of regular punting, the gap between a 6% market and a 10% market is the difference between losing 6% of turnover and losing 10% of turnover, with variance on top. Margins are the only line on the page that compounds quietly; a bonus is loud and small, a margin is quiet and large.

This is the lens to read the rest of the page through. Everything from a “best odds” claim to a “boosted odds” token rests on whether the bookmaker’s margin is set honestly, and the cheapest way to read it is to compare the implied probabilities of the three outcomes on a single match and see how far they overshoot 1.00.

A worked example

On a home / draw / away market with decimal odds 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60, the implied probabilities are roughly 47.6% / 29.4% / 27.8%. Together they total about 1.048 after the rounding, which corresponds to a margin in the band of roughly 4% to 5% — comfortably inside the typical top-flight spread. Less efficient markets — lower-league football, niche props, same-game multis on long-shot legs — carry higher margins, and the only way to see the difference is to add up the implied probabilities on both sides.

Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. The payout share of the market equals the inverse of the sum of the implied probabilities; the margin equals one minus that share. The same calculation works for any market with any number of outcomes, from a three-way 1X2 to a twenty-runner outright winner.

Football Markets: What a Punter Can Actually Bet On

The match-result market and where it lives in the betting slip

The 1X2 market — home win, draw, away win — is the spine of football betting. TAB NZ publishes it for nearly every football fixture its sportsbook covers, from the Premier League and Champions League to the New Zealand Football National League and friendlies. A $10 bet on the home win at odds of 2.10 returns $21 if the bet wins and zero otherwise. The bet settles at full-time, after stoppage time, before extra time and penalties.

Handicap markets shift the goal count before kick-off to balance the chances between a strong favourite and a weaker opponent. A -1 handicap on the home team means the favourite starts the match at -1 goal; the bet wins only if the favourite wins by two or more. A +1 handicap on the away team means the outsider starts the match at +1; the bet wins if the outsider wins, draws or loses by one goal.

Totals, sometimes called over/under, settle on the total number of goals in a match — over 2.5 goals means three or more, under 2.5 means two or fewer. Both teams to score is the yes/no on whether each team scores at least once. Each market sits on the same betting slip, settled by the same result.

Same-game multis and the long-shot trap

A same-game multi (SGM) combines legs from one match into one bet at multiplied odds. A $10 stake on home win + over 1.5 goals + both teams to score, with each leg priced at roughly 1.50, multiplies to about 3.38. The multi looks more attractive than three singles because the headline price is bigger, and the multi costs the punter more than three singles because the bookmaker’s margin is applied to the multiplied price rather than each leg independently. A multi of three legs at 1.50 each carries roughly the same margin as a market with three correlated outcomes priced at the multiplied odds, and that margin is higher than each leg’s standalone margin.

The long-shot trap is the cousin of the multi: a low-probability leg from a market the punter does not understand, stacked into a multi because the headline price looks generous. Margins on long-shot props are wider, and the more legs in a multi, the harder the multi is to clear against the margin even when the model will back each leg as a single.

Spread betting, briefly

Spread betting on football exists on some overseas platforms but is not part of the TAB NZ sportsbook. Spread betting quotes a margin — a range of goals, a range of corners, a range of cards — and the punter’s stake is multiplied by how far the final figure lands from the spread. A $10 buy on a total goals spread of 2.7–3.0 pays $10 for every goal above 3.0 and costs $10 for every goal below 2.7. The bet can cost more than the stake if the result runs against the spread, which is the sharp edge of the product: variable liability, not fixed liability. New Zealand has no spread-betting exchange; offshore brands offering it are not authorised to take bets from New Zealand residents under section 74AAA.

Bonuses and Free Bets: What the Marketing Word Actually Buys

“Bonus bet” is the only TAB NZ promotional format

TAB NZ runs “bonus bets” promotions. The wording is the language of the operator’s own terms, and what it describes is a free bet — a credit the punter uses instead of real money on a selection, where the stake is not returned when the bet wins. A $10 bonus bet at odds of 3.00 settles as $20 of profit if it wins, not $30 of return; the $10 disappears with the stake because it was never real money to begin with.

Offshore brands the search returns routinely publish welcome packages, odds boosts, accumulator insurances and cashbacks. None of them is available to a New Zealand punter lawfully, and a brand’s own terms may themselves restrict who can claim. The mechanics are still worth understanding, because the same offers appear on Australian, British and United States sites a New Zealand reader has friends on, and because the cost the offer carries is the same shape wherever it runs.

What a “100% bonus” actually costs

The headline is a percentage match on the first deposit. A 100% match up to $200 means the bookmaker credits bonus money equal to the deposit, capped at $200. The bonus is then subject to wagering requirements: the bonus amount, often including the deposit, must be turned over a number of times before any of it can be withdrawn. A $200 bonus with a 5x wagering requirement means the punter must place $1,000 of qualifying bets before withdrawal is permitted. Each qualifying bet must be placed at or above a minimum price, often 1.50 in decimal form, and certain bet types may not count.

The clearance mechanism is where the offer’s true cost lives. Required turnover = bonus base × wagering factor. If the wagering factor is 5 and the base is the bonus plus deposit, turnover is $200 × 2 × 5 = $2,000 of qualifying bets. The number of bets required depends on the stake per bet; at $10 per qualifying bet, that is 200 bets. At a margin of 5% on the football markets the punter plays, the expected cost of clearing the offer is $2,000 × 5% = $100 on average, before any variance. The bonus nominally gave $200; the clearance costs $100 of expected value before the punter’s edge enters the picture.

A free bet, by contrast, carries no wagering requirement but no stake return either. Its expected value is the free-bet amount × (odds − 1) ÷ odds × the market’s payout share. A $20 free bet at odds of 4.00 on a 95%-payout market is worth roughly $14.30 in expected profit, not $60 — because the $20 stake is forfeit and the market’s margin still bites on the resulting price. This is the headline-price-near-the-margin-of-the-market shape, and the gap is the cost the marketing word never quotes.

The audit every reader ought to run

For any bonus or free bet on any platform, three numbers matter: the wagering factor and the bonus base, the minimum price for a qualifying bet, and the cap on free-bet winnings or on bonus-derived withdrawals. Each number is on the terms page; none is on the homepage. A bonus with no wagering requirement but a $50 cap on winnings gives the punter less than a bonus with wagering but no cap, depending on the odds the punter plans to take. Read the wagering terms before claiming.

Live Betting and Cash-Out on Football

What “live” means in a TAB NZ app

Live betting settles on the same markets as pre-match, with prices updated as the match unfolds. TAB NZ publishes in-play markets in its apps across football, rugby, basketball and the racing codes; the regulatory position on which in-play markets may or may not be offered is not established in statute. What is published is what the operator publishes: same-game multis, totals, next goal, the standard 1X2 where the data feed allows, all updated between phases of play.

Live prices move faster than pre-match prices. A goal at minute 14 resets the entire market; a red card at minute 67 resets it again. Punters who treat live as a way to “see the match first” are pricing the same match twice — once before kick-off and once on the way in — without a model for either.

Cash-out as the early-exit knob

Cash-out settles a bet before the match ends, at a price the operator offers at that moment. The price reflects the current state of play: a punt on the home team at odds of 2.10 taken pre-match becomes a smaller figure if the home team is trailing at halftime, and a larger figure if it is leading. Cash-out is offered by TAB NZ in its apps, and by some offshore brands, with the same mechanics; it always returns less than the maximum the bet will clear at full-time because the operator takes a slice for the early settlement.

The cash-out value is a function of the current price of the bet and the time remaining; a punter who cashes out at minute 60 locks in a fraction of the maximum, and the fraction is determined by the market structure rather than the punter’s view. Cash-out is not a tool for betting better; it is a tool for not betting the next seventy minutes.

The line where live punting helps

The legitimate use of live betting is to take a price that has just moved and the model says ought to move again. A goal at minute 12 changes the away team’s win probability by a known amount; a red card shifts it further. Punters with a model have something to do with a moving price; punters without one are paying the live margin on top of the pre-match margin, which is a worse price than the one they might have taken before kick-off.

Responsible Gambling in the New Zealand Market

What TAB NZ is required to publish

TAB NZ lists deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion in its apps, with the exclusion applying across both TAB and Betcha. The age for betting is 18; betting under 18 is an offence under section 89 of the Racing Industry Act 2020. TAB NZ pays a Problem Gambling Levy of 0.74% of gross profits, in force from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2028, which funds harm-minimisation work in the community.

Account opening requires a verified New Zealand address and identification; offshore brands do not always require either. The harm-minimisation tools only reach the brand they sit inside; a self-exclusion on TAB does not transfer to an offshore brand, which is a meaningful gap when the same punter has both accounts.

Where help is found

The free Gambling Helpline at 0800 654 655 and the text line at 8006 are listed on the TAB NZ App Store listing and run 24 hours. Safer Gambling Aotearoa publishes information on gambling harm and family support. These are the same services and the same number an offshore brand’s terms page will point to as well, but they are reachable directly from inside the TAB NZ app at the limits section.

What the offshore side lacks

An offshore brand serving New Zealand from Curaçao or Anjouan or the Comoros cannot be reached by the Department of Internal Affairs complaints process the way TAB NZ can. The DIA warns that overseas operators “may be in jurisdictions with minimal consumer safeguards, may not return unspent credits and may not pay out large wins” — the operator’s own terms page will say something different, but the operator’s own terms page is the only terms page an offshore punter has. A self-exclusion request on an offshore brand depends on the brand cooperating; on TAB NZ, it is an obligation.

The Bookmaker Comparison: What a New Zealand Punter Actually Meets

The comparison below covers TAB, Betcha and the offshore brands a search surfaces.

TAB

TAB is one of the two online brands of TAB NZ. Its app, published on the New Zealand App Store under the seller name New Zealand Racing Board, was first released on 8 September 2014 and carries a 17+ App Store age rating while stating that customers must be 18 or over to bet. The app covers horse and harness racing, rugby union and rugby league, and other sports including football, with pre-match and live markets and a 0.74% Problem Gambling Levy contribution built in.

The football product is the regulated one: 1X2, handicaps, totals, same-game multis across the fixtures the trading team has priced. Markets for less-followed leagues widen and narrow with the calendar and the trading desk’s appetite. Withdrawal and deposit methods are operator-defined and listed inside the app, with a simplified wallet for deposits and withdrawals.

What sets TAB apart in the comparison is the regulator oversight, the harm-minimisation tools in-app and the long Entain partnership underwritten for the racing sector. The cost the punter pays is the absence of competition on price: where an Australian or British punter can shop a price across ten brands, a New Zealand punter has one legal shop, and the headline price is the regulated price. This option provides a safe, regulated experience for the punter.

Betcha

Betcha is the second online brand of TAB NZ, run by the same operator group and the same operator account. Its app, published on the New Zealand App Store by Entain New Zealand Limited, was first released on 6 August 2024 and covers horse, greyhound and harness racing plus rugby, NRL, MMA/UFC, NBA, NFL, tennis, cricket, football, motorsports and esports.

The product line is broader on the surface than TAB’s, with motorsports and esports added to the racing and football core. The Entain platform behind the app is the same as the platform behind TAB, and the markets for football across the two brands are broadly the same. The customer experience is different: Betcha’s interface is a generation newer than TAB’s, and the app targets a younger punter with a sharper product layout.

What sets Betcha apart in the comparison is the interface and the marketing target. The cost to the punter is the same one as TAB’s — the regulated price, the absence of competitor shops. Self-exclusion transfers across both brands, so a punter closing one account closes the other. A modern interface on a reliable framework.

Thunderpick

Thunderpick is esports-first, covering CS2, League of Legends, Dota 2 and Valorant, and its sportsbook offers a cash-out feature and markets from the Champions League to the NFL. This brand is not licensed in New Zealand; only TAB NZ may offer racing and sports betting to people in New Zealand.

The football product covers the top European leagues, North American leagues and the international tournaments. Cash-out is built in. The sportsbook’s interface is clean on the esports side; the football side is functional.

What sets Thunderpick apart in the comparison is the cashier’s crypto focus and the esports depth. The cost to the punter is the regulator: there is no Department of Internal Affairs complaints route to a Curaçao holder, the deposit limits and self-exclusion are operator-level and depend on the brand enforcing its own policy, and the New Zealand harm-minimisation framework does not reach the account. A specialized choice, but without the standard protections.

Winz.io

Winz.io runs a sports betting bonus promotion and a separate sportsbook, with a Sportsbook T&C page, Sports Rules and Bonus Terms and Conditions, structured in the way multi-brand operators standardise their compliance copy. This brand is not licensed in New Zealand; only TAB NZ may offer racing and sports betting to people in New Zealand.

The football product sits inside a wider sportsbook rather than as a dedicated vertical, with 1X2, handicaps, totals, esports, virtuals and racing all on the same site. The bonus programme publishes a sportsbook bonus with the standard clear-it-before-withdrawing structure.

What sets Winz.io apart in the comparison is the bonus programme and the multi-vertical site. The cost to the punter is the regulator’s absence, the bonus programme’s wagering terms, and the operational risk that DIA’s warning about unreturned credits and unpaid wins sits outside the New Zealand complaint framework. A bonus-heavy site, though the terms demand careful reading.

Rooster.bet

Rooster.bet’s sportsbook has a Live section, Sports Promotions, Results, Schedule, E-sports and Predictions sections, with odds displayed in six formats.

The football product is the standard 1X2 / handicaps / totals / live multis. The Predictions section is a curated feed the operator publishes rather than a market. The six-format odds display includes decimal, fractional, American, Hong Kong, Malay and Indonesian, which is a wider standard than TAB NZ’s decimal-only publication.

What sets Rooster.bet apart in the comparison is the odds-format choice and the curated predictions feed. The cost to the punter is the Tobique licence’s limited reach and the New Zealand complaint framework’s silence on a Tobique-licence operator. More formats, but the core security is not the same as the local option.

Roobet

Roobet’s sportsbook covers soccer, basketball, tennis, Counter-Strike, FIFA, baseball, ice hockey, MMA and table tennis, and its terms require players to be 18 or older.

The football product sits inside the wider Roobet offering alongside the casino vertical. Same-game multis on the major leagues sit with a cash-out feature, and the operator’s age requirement echoes TAB NZ’s in spirit though not in jurisdiction.

What sets Roobet apart in the comparison is the brand recognition and the multi-vertical account structure. The cost to the punter is the Curaçao licence, the regulator’s absence, and the bonus programme’s terms that govern withdrawals. A recognisable name, but the platform operates beyond DIA’s reach.

RoyalistPlay

RoyalistPlay’s sportsbook offers live betting, sports promotions, results and a schedule, with football, basketball, tennis, handball, ice hockey, volleyball and table tennis among the top sports plus a separate e-sports section and Predictions section. This brand is not licensed in New Zealand.

The football product lists the standard core markets with the same handicaps and totals across the top leagues. The schedule and results sections show fixtures on a calendar interface, which is sharper than a list of ungrouped matches.

What sets RoyalistPlay apart in the comparison is the calendar interface on the schedule. The cost to the punter is the same as the other Tobique-licence brands in this set, meaning standard protections are missing. The design is better, but the regulatory risk remains.

Glorion

Glorion offers pre-match and live betting, virtual sports, horse racing and esports, with markets grouped into popular, niche, indoor and outdoor sports plus entertainment events such as award shows and elections. This brand is not licensed in New Zealand.

The football product sits with a wider market mix that includes entertainment and novelty props. A football punter on Glorion meets a bet on the Best Picture winner at the same operator, which is a categorically different offer from TAB NZ’s regulated sportsbook.

What sets Glorion apart in the comparison is the breadth of the entertainment verticals on the same wallet. The cost to the punter is the missing licence, which makes the New Zealand complaint framework even further away than for a standard Curaçao-licence operator. Interesting variety, but lack of licensing creates significant uncertainty.

BillyBets

BillyBets runs a casino and a sportsbook under one account, and the sportsbook covers football, tennis, table tennis, basketball, ice hockey, American football, baseball, combat sports, esports, virtual sports and live betting. This brand is not licensed in New Zealand.

The football product is comprehensive on sports, with the standard 1X2 / handicaps / totals / multis on major leagues. The casino-and-sportsbook account structure is the same as Roobet’s and RoyalistPlay’s.

What sets BillyBets apart in the comparison is the breadth of the sport list: American football and baseball sit alongside football, which is a North American tilt. The cost to the punter is the missing licence and the wide vertical spread that pulls the punt across markets the operator can change without notice. Broad sports coverage, but the regulatory transparency is low.

BetNinja

BetNinja advertises a casino welcome of EUR 1,000 bonus and 100 free spins, and a sports offer of a 100% match up to EUR 100 on the first deposit. The brand is not licensed in New Zealand, and the named Union of the Comoros licence gives no right to take bets from people in New Zealand.

The football product carries the casino and sports vertical split, with a sportsbook bonus attached. The matched-deposit structure (100% up to EUR 100) is the standard sign-up pattern for an offshore brand.

What sets BetNinja apart in the comparison is the explicit publication of a sports bonus on the homepage. The cost to the punter is the bonus’s wagering terms, the regulator’s absence, and the currency mismatch (EUR is the default for the homepage, NZD is not offered as a deposit currency).

Worth it for the punter who has decided to play offshore and wants an explicit sports bonus on the homepage. Not worth it for the punter who wants TAB NZ’s regulated pricing in NZD.

What to Take Away

The headline for the comparison is not “TAB NZ is the best bookmaker” — it is “TAB NZ is the only lawful bookmaker, the offshore market is wide and unregulated, and the choice is the punter’s to make with the regulator’s risk on the table.” A punter who wants the regulated option has TAB and Betcha, with the same price feed and the same harm-minimisation tools. A punter who wants esports depth, a cash-out feature or a sportsbook bonus has the offshore market, with the regulator’s warning about unreturned credits and unpaid wins published as policy.

The operational facts a punter ought to weigh: the app age ratings (17+ on the App Store for TAB, 18+ as a stated requirement), the self-exclusion transfer across TAB and Betcha, the regulator behind the regulated option, and the missing regulator behind every offshore option. The arithmetic facts a punter ought to weigh: the implied probability and margin of every market, the wagering requirement of any bonus, and the expected cost of clearing it. Both together are the comparison the page has tried to set out.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does spread betting work in football?

Spread betting quotes a margin — goals, corners, cards — and the punter’s stake is multiplied by how far the result lands from that spread. A $10 buy on a total goals spread of 2.7–3.0 pays $10 for every goal above 3.0 and costs $10 for every goal below 2.7. Liability is variable: a heavy result can cost more than the original stake. New Zealand’s regulated sportsbook at TAB NZ does not offer spread betting on football, and offshore spread-betting platforms are not authorised to take bets from people in New Zealand under section 74AAA.

How do you bet against the spread in football?

“Betting against the spread” refers to handicap markets, where one team starts the match with a goal advantage or disadvantage to balance the chances. A bet on the away team at +1.5 wins if the away team wins, draws or loses by one goal. A bet on the home team at −1.5 wins only if the home team wins by two or more. Handicap markets are published alongside 1X2 on TAB NZ’s football sportsbook for most fixtures.

How do you bet correctly on a football match?

A “correct” bet is one whose model — although simple — gives a higher implied probability than the price. The cheapest discipline is reading the implied probability of every market the bet is on, comparing it against the model’s probability, and declining the bet where the price is shorter than the model. The hardest part is the bankroll: decide the stake per bet as a fraction of total bank, not as a function of confidence. TAB NZ’s deposit-limit tool is a way to enforce that ceiling at the account level rather than the bet-by-bet level.

Which bookmaker may lawfully take sports and racing bets in New Zealand?

TAB NZ, through its two online brands TAB and Betcha, is the only provider lawfully offering racing and sports betting to people in New Zealand. The Racing Industry Amendment Act 2025 inserted section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020, in force from 28 June 2025, and the Department of Internal Affairs told unlicensed providers to withdraw with immediate effect. There is no licensing route for another bookmaker, because there is only one lawful provider.

How is the return on a bet worked out from the stake and the odds?

For decimal odds the return equals stake × odds. A $10 stake at odds of 2.50 returns $25 if the bet wins; the profit is $15 once the $10 stake is taken back out. For a multi the odds of each leg multiply into a single price, and the formula applies once to the combined price. A free bet returns only the profit because the stake is not credited back with the win, so a $10 free bet at odds of 3.00 returns $20 of profit, not $30 of return.

What is the bookmaker’s margin and how does it appear in the odds?

The margin is the slice of every unit bet that the bookmaker keeps on average. For a three-way match-result market the implied probabilities are 1 ÷ each decimal price, and the margin is one minus the inverse of the sum of those probabilities. A typical top-flight football 1X2 market carries a margin in the band of 4% to 8%; lower leagues and niche props carry higher margins. Lower-margin markets are the ones a serious punter stays on; higher-margin markets are where the price quietly bleeds.

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